The biggest risk

People talk about individual risk profiles. About a personal appetite for risk. About quantifying risk.

There’s a few issues though:

  1. We’re all terrible at estimating risk, so matching a personal level of comfort with a perceived level of risk is likely to bare little connection with reality.

  2. Even if an expert is able to accurately define the risk for us (eliminating our estimation issue), we’re not great at understanding what the real impacts will be.

  3. The biggest risk is often then you don’t see coming.

In decision-making, the biggest risk is that your assumptions are wrong. And the most devious assumption to get a handle on are the one that make up the untested aspects of your particular worldview, the aspects that have been handed to you or shaped by your environment.

When deciding which house to buy, what are you assuming?

  1. That house prices will always increase?

  2. That overcapitalising is a bad idea?

  3. That the decile rating of the local school is important?

  4. That the view of anyone else matters?

  5. That you can afford it?