Take a look at that inside view

I’m not referring to the view from the rooftop bar (although it was pretty awesome, if a little windy). I’m referring to the inside view, a term coined by the ever-present and oft-quoted Daniel Kahneman.*

Basically, we humans have a tendency to adopt a particular attitude when assessing the potential of a venture we are part of of. Unsurprisingly, we tend to expect that we will succeed. Even in scenarios where we know the greatest likelihood is failure, we work on the assumption that our project is different, that we are special, that we site outside the norm and the rules don’t apply to us.

• It’s why we open new restaurants, knowing that most fail.

• It’s why we start small businesses.

• It could even have something to do with why we have kids (it won’t be that hard for me…)

We know that many people with a mortgage end up stuck in jobs they hate, scared to risk a stable pay check. But we assume we’re different when we buy.

We know that renovating old houses often cost more than the initial budget because of unforeseen work. But we commit out maximum amount from the outset.

We know that building a house typically takes longer than expected. But we take on a fixed-term rental agreement that ends the day after the first finish date.

When it comes to out attitudes and actions in the property market, how else are we each special in our perception, and totally normal in reality?

*You can read an excerpt from Kahneman’s primary piece of work, Thinking Fast and Slow that talks about the Inside View at this McKinsey article.

Make a prediction

Want to learn something?

Think you know something?

Make a prediction. Then review what actually happens. What can you learn?

• If you think you know about a sport, make a prediction about the result of the next game.

• If you’re interested in politics, predict the top three issues at the next election.

• If you want to learn about the housing market, go to an open home and predict the auction price.

• If you do the shopping every week, predict next week’s grocery bill.

Predict. Review. Reflect.

Oh, and do it all in writing.

Planning to think, or thinking to plan?

Planning can become a stand-in for doing the actual work.

That work we’re avoiding might be active: We spend all day writing a list of things to take on holiday instead of actually packing our bags.

But a more likely scenario is that we’re using the process of planning to give (ourselves) the illusion of thinking. Using the example of list-writing in lieu of bag-packing: We're avoiding the work of thinking about what we really need to take on holiday and replacing it with the (apparently) productive process of writing a list of everything we think we could need.

Planning is a familiar word in the property industry.* Development plan. City plan. Resource plan. Project plan. Construction plan.

When we prepare these plans, how often are we simply following a pre-determined process deemed appropriate, correct or efficient, instead of doing the hard work of thinking things through and determining the best course of action?

It isn’t that planning isn’t valuable. Written down, actionable plans are needed to deliver a project. Rather, it’s more that experts in planning processes should support the development and implementation of creative ideas, rather than hold court over the process that takes an idea into action steps.

*You could also easily replace ‘planning’ with ‘design’ here and throughout this post, but my feeling is that designers enjoy the creative thinking process to much to defer to a pre-determined planning process.